Integrated decision support system for environmental risk assessment and management
About the project
In the context of climate change, natural disasters are one of the biggest problems for countries around the world. Particular
attention is paid to their impact on forests due to the ecological and socio-economic consequences of their deteriorated health,
lower productivity, growth and regeneration. It has been pointed out that climate change reduces the risk of fires, erosion and
flooding, which helping to secure a range of ecosystem services that forest areas provide and leads to difficulties in many areas of
human life. Natural disturbances are unpredictable and uncontrollable, but with proper planning of a wide range of activities in
forests and with correct, science-based decisions, disturbances can be managed to some extent and their impacts drastically
reduced. The development of a Decision Support System (DSS) integrates scientific results into the general framework of
measures and approaches for sustainable forest management. The basis for a DSS is to assess the risks of different natural
disturbances, analyse data, methods and models, and better inform and increase knowledge about forest management, taking into
account the needs and requirements of stakeholders. By integrating these three approaches into a common methodological
framework, up-to-date data on the results of ecosystem research covering a considerable number of factors will provide data on
changes in erosion intensity in the event of fire. Recommendations will be developed for the implementation of science-based
solutions for fire and erosion risk that are applicable to the sustainable management of forest ecosystems in Bulgaria.
Project оbjective(s)
The main objective of this project is the conceptualisation and development of new methodological approaches for next-generation
DSS, covering the links between forest, forest landscape management and landscape stakeholders. The focus is on the
verification, evaluation and provision of tools and methods for decision-making. The results of the action will support holistic
approaches to landscape planning that improve sustainable forest management, considering the full range of ESS and addressing
policies and regulations across Europe. In this regard, an integrated DSS for the sustainable delivery of multiple ESS at the
landscape scale includes support for the provision of resources for biotechnology-based economic activities, protection and
regulation and cultural services. The starting point for formulating a DSS framework will require consideration of spatial forest
information and approaches from different knowledge domains on rural areas and land use, such as agriculture, forestry, forest
fires, hydrology, biodiversity-related fields and land-use change processes. A major challenge concerns the harmonisation of
concepts, data sources and temporal and spatial structure of decision-making tools. Another challenge concerns the ability to
introduce different perspectives on a problem of great relevance to different parts of Europe. For example, issues of land use and
forest fires linked to urban sprawl are more acute in certain regions, while the protection of forests from pests and storms is more
focused in other areas. The combination of data, quantitative analysis methods and problem focus forms the basis for multi-
stakeholder approaches to informed decision-making. The landscape perspective brings to the fore different challenges, such as
how to present and illustrate the results of different landscape management strategies, how to design multi-stakeholder processes
that encompass actors from different landscape sectors (not only forestry), and how to make the results accessible to policy
processes at national and European level. The last point puts the focus on governance and implementation issues. Minimizing the
risk of their occurrence or reducing the damage from them is of particular importance for the proper functioning of ecosystems.
Methods and tools
The study will be conducted on the territory of pre-selected forest holdings for which there is data on fires that have occurred over the past few
years. An analysis of basic soil characteristics will be made after the fire, and they will be compared with available data before the fire. The
Gavrilovich method (EGM) for assessing the intensity of erosion will be applied, in which some of the factors are related to soil characteristics.
The selected model for assessing the intensity of erosion will also be used to determine the impact of fires on the intensity of erosion, by
applying it under conditions of an already existing fire and under conditions without disturbances. The risk of fires in nature in the selected
territories will be assessed according to the Methodology for assessing and mapping the risk of forest fires on the territory of the country
approved by the IAG (Lyubenov K., 2016) and according to the one prepared by a team of the Institute of Forestry and Agricultural Sciences
and the Sofia University of Applied Sciences. Ohridski – “Methodology for assessing the risk of natural fires”.
In addition to analyzing the risk
of natural disturbances, the impact of the fires that have occurred on soil characteristics and, accordingly, on the risk of erosion will be studied.
By applying the concept of ecosystem services, as a link between environmental benefits and human well-being, a geospatial analysis and
assessment of the provision of selected ecosystem services from the groups of material, regulatory and cultural services will be carried out. The
results obtained will be visualized through maps, using the capabilities of geographic information systems. In this way, territories are determined
in which it is necessary to apply forestry measures to reduce the risk of natural disturbances as a priority.
Implementation Plan / Project Activities
| Activity | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Analysis of data on fires and erosion processes in pilot areas |
| 2 | Application of the EPM model (Gavrilovich) for erosion assessment before and after fire |
| 3 | Assessment of fire risk by applying the established methodologies (IAG and IG-BAS/SU) |
| 4 | Research of ecosystem services in a post-disturbance environment (degradation processes, such as fire or erosion) (GIS analysis) |
| 5 | Participation in meetings and workshops of WG1 and WG2 (assessment of ecosystem services, DSS models) |
| 6 | Development of recommendations for sustainable risk management and integration into DSS |
| 7 | Publication of results in joint scientific articles and participation in conferences |
| 8 | Preparation of a national report with recommendations for forest policy |
| Activity | Months | |
|---|---|---|
123456789101112131415161718192021222324 |
||
| 1 | Analysis of data on fires and erosion processes in pilot areas | |
| 2 | Application of the EPM (Gavrilovich) model for erosion assessment before and after fire | |
| 3 | Fire risk assessment by applying the established methodologies (SFA and FRI – BAS/SU) | |
| 4 | Study of ecosystem services in a post- disturbance environment (degradation processes, such as fire or erosion) (GIS analysis) | |
| 5 | Participation in meetings and workshops of WG1 and WG2 (assessment of ecosystem services, DSS models) | |
| 6 | Development of recommendations for sustainable risk management and integration into DSS | |
| 7 | Publication of results in joint scientific articles and participation in conferences | |
| 8 | Preparation of a national report with recommendations for forest policy |
Team
Host Organization: Forest Research Institute – Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Chief Assistant Professor Todor N. Stoyanov, PhD – Project Manager
Dr. Todor N. Stoyanov is a researcher at the Forest Research Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. His research focuses
on wildfire risk assessment and management, economic loss evaluation, ecosystem services, sustainable forest management,
forest policy, bioeconomy, and decision support systems (DSS).
He is the author of the monograph “Forest Fires – Legislation, Management and Prevention” and numerous scientific publications
related to wildfire governance, forest economics, circular bioeconomy, and sustainable natural resource management. He actively
participates in international research networks and projects, including COST Action DSS4ES, EASAC initiatives, and several
European and national research programs.
His current work focuses on the development of integrated frameworks for wildfire risk assessment, economic loss valuation,
ecosystem services analysis, and decision-support tools for climate-resilient forest governance and sustainable land management.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Eli Pavlova-Traykova - Team Member
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Eli Pavlova-Traykova Forest Research Institute – Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Scientific and professional qualifications: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Eli Pavlova-Traykova is a specialist in the field of soil science, soil degradation and
erosion processes in forest ecosystems.
She has many years of experience in:
- Analysis of soil characteristics and processes after natural disturbances (fires, landslides, erosion);
- Use of GIS technologies and spatial models for analysis of landscape and ecological changes;
- Application of methods for assessing ecosystem services related to soil fertility, water retention and erosion protection;
- Participation in interdisciplinary scientific teams on projects funded by the National Park "Science and Education", the National Science
Foundation and international programs:
She has publications in specialized scientific journals, as well as experience in fieldwork in various types of forest ecosystems in Bulgaria.
Role and responsibilities in the EcoRiskGuard project:
- Conducting soil studies in fire-preserving territories;
- Collection and interpretation of soil samples, incl. preparation for laboratory processing;
- Application of the Gavrilovich model (EPM) for quantitative assessment of erosion risk;
- Participation in GIS analyses and spatial modeling of ecosystem services;
- Support in preparing maps and reports, as well as participation in scientific publications and presentation of results.
Chief Assistant Professor Rositsa Yaneva - Team Member
Chief Assistant Professor Rositsa Yaneva is an expert in the field of forestry, ecosystem analysis and spatial modeling. Her scientific
experience includes:
- Research on restoration processes in forests after natural disturbances – fires, windstorms, droughts;
- Work with geographic information systems (GIS) for the needs of forest planning and management;
- Application of models for forecasting forest risks and assessing ecosystem services;
- Experience in intersectoral cooperation with forestry, environmental and governance institutions. Author and co-author of scientific
publications in the field of sustainable forest management and integrated assessment of environmental risks. Role and responsibilities in the
EcoRiskGuard project:
- Collection, structuring and analysis of spatial and statistical data related to fire risk;
- Implementation of the Methodology for assessing and mapping the risk of forest fires (IAG, 2016);
- Participation in the implementation of the ERM model for assessing erosion hazard;
- Creation of GIS maps and visualizations of risk areas;
- Co-authorship in developing recommendations for sustainable management and scientific publications.
Publications and results
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